Nearly two years into the global coronavirus outbreak, few can say their lives, routines and shopping habits look the same as they did in December 2019, or even early 2020, for that matter. Say what you will about the 2020s, but so far, this new decade has certainly been one to remember.

When Covid-19 cases rose in the US in March 2020, people sheltered in place, worked from home, and wore face masks in public. Suddenly, a trip to the grocery store felt more like a post-apocalyptic side quest than a quick errand. In an attempt to stem the spread of the novel virus, consumers prioritized online shopping and curbside pickup, and brand loyalty fell by the wayside as they explored alternative options amid supply chain disruptions and other logistical challenges.

Naturally, this sudden shift in purchasing patterns hurt some categories more than others. While sales spiked for essentials like toilet paper and cleaning products, many segments in retail, including the beauty industry, took a massive hit.

By the end of 2020, experts were able to identify significant declines in categories like color cosmetics and fragrance. Though many predict a resurgence in these categories as the global economy recovers and consumers return to their pre-Covid lifestyles, only time will tell. However, we can point to one bright spot in the beauty space: According to an August 2021 report from Fortune Business Insights, the global skincare market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of more than 5% and top $200 billion by 2026.


Short- and Long-Term Trends in the Skincare Market

It makes intuitive sense why beauty consumers aren’t investing as much of their money in color cosmetics right now. Why splurge on that killer red lipstick if no one will be able to see it under your mask? Why put on a full face of foundation when Zoom and other video collaboration platforms have beauty filters that smooth out your appearance just as effectively?

The numbers back up those sentiments. The share price of Coty, the global beauty company that owns iconic brands like Rimmel and CoverGirl, fell 52% in March 2020. About six months later, Mintel forecasted a 10.6% decline in 2020 overall US makeup sales. At the same time, research from the NDP Group revealed that almost 40% of skincare users were using skincare products more often than they did in 2019.

But while the global pandemic threw some of these trends into sharp relief, the wheels were already in motion before anyone had ever heard of Covid-19. At the beginning of 2014, Ulta Beauty was earning around $2.7 billion in annual net sales and had 675 total stores. Instagram influencers and trendsetters like the Kardashian-Jenner family drove a renewed interest in makeup as they promoted trends like baking, contouring and matte liquid lipsticks.

By 2019, Ulta had more than doubled its annual sales and nearly doubled the number of brick-and-mortar stores in operation, but in August, it became clear that the tides were turning. Ulta lowered its guidance for fiscal 2019—citing underperformance in the cosmetics category, which made up more than half of its total sales.

Fast-forward a year later, and Ulta confirmed that makeup sales still languished compared to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, consumers’ demand for clean skincare  increased. We can point to a few short- and long-term trends in the skincare market that may have contributed to the decline of color cosmetics. Here are a few:

• DIY beauty: When covid lockdowns temporarily shut down salons and beauty retailers, consumers took matters into their own hands. Suddenly, hair colorings, manicure services, and facials became fun do-it-yourself (DIY) projects. Within the first week of April 2020, for example, US sales of hair dye and nail clippers had skyrocketed 23% and 166%, respectively, compared to the previous April. DIY beauty also served as a self-care outlet for stressed-out consumers. The esthetician’s office may be closed, but your bathroom is always open for business. Even luxury DIY-centric products—like an at-home light therapy device that retails for upward of $400—gained in popularity. That said, it seems that consumers still value professional pampering services because DIY-related discussions started to dwindle as the year went on, and by November 2021, they’d fallen 71.6%.

• “Zoom boom”: Video platforms such as Zoom, Google Hangouts, Skype and FaceTime are staples in people’s post-Covid lives. Despite much of our social interaction happening in virtual spaces, cosmetic treatment practitioners have noticed a 57% uptick in inquiries for face and neck treatments, a phenomenon they’re calling “Zoom boom.” People who work remotely are especially prone to Zoom boom, as they’re forced to look at their faces on camera much more than they would have pre-pandemic. This repetitive self-gazing makes people more critical of their personal appearance and seek cosmetic treatments. With remote work becoming a fixture in Corporate America, it will be interesting to see how the Zoom boom continues to influence skincare market trends.

• More skin, less cosmetics: One of the most significant reasons we’re seeing more people focus on skincare and wellness is because, well, it’s trendy. After the all-matte-everything looks of the mid-2010s ran their course, many consumers decided they’d had enough of heavy-handed looks. Enter “skinimalism.” Skinimalism is all about loving the skin you’re in rather than trying to cover any imperfections. That puts a focus on lightweight products that let skin shine through (think tinted SPF and glowy serums). In a December 2020 report, Pinterest noted a significant jump in searches for natural skincare. For example, searches for “how to get glowing skin naturally” grew fourfold, while those for “natural everyday makeup” rose 180%.

• Maskne: Maskne isn’t necessarily a new problem. After all, many professionals, especially those in the healthcare space, have been wearing masks for years. However, maskne, or the acne and irritation resulting from wearing a face mask for a prolonged period of time, reached new levels of awareness as the general public began masking up in 2020. As a result, we’ve seen trends in the skincare market that favor treating and preventing acne around the chin and jaw. And according to plastic surgeon Smita Ramanadham, MD, “Products that protect the skin barrier, hydrate, and reduce inflammation will be huge in 2022.”

• Whole-body products: Wellness and skincare go way beyond the face and neck. In 2021, we saw the body care beauty category explode on the scene with the rise of self-care routines and rituals. Experts don’t see that growth slowing any time soon. Brands of all stripes are releasing more body-specific products—ranging from bacne-fighting sprays to luxurious bubble baths to barrier repair products. Aromatherapy as a form of self-care is bigger than ever, according to research from CB Insights.

• Hand care: Perhaps no industry had a bigger 2020 than hand sanitizer. In fact, the global hand sanitizer market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of more than 22% between 2020 and 2027. We don’t have to look far to see why: Consumers’ increasing awareness of germs and hand hygiene drove hand sanitizer sales through the roof, especially early in the pandemic. In fact, hand sanitizer was in such short supply that many distilleries pivoted from making spirits to producing alcohol-based sanitizers. We even saw long-time brands like Purell launch more ingredient-conscious hand washes to appeal to consumers’ demand for clean skincare.

This isn’t the last we’ll hear of these trends in the skincare market, but much like any trend, they’ll likely wax and wane in popularity during the next few years. One trend we can count on sticking around, however, is a sharpened focus on skincare ingredients.


Skincare Star Ingredients to Keep an Eye On

Gone are the days when consumers took marketing buzzwords like “clean” and “natural” at face value. Today, beauty lovers want to know exactly what they’re applying to their body’s largest organ: their skin. In fact, an overwhelming majority of American women (95%, to be exact) say they look for specific skincare ingredients when shopping for new products.

Here are nine skincare ingredients to keep an eye on in 2022:

1. Niacinamide
Niacinamide is a form of vitamin B3; it’s been on the rise for several years now both in skincare products and social media. This superstar has more than 185 million views on TikTok. Niacinamide is popular for a reason: It does it all! Look for products with niacinimide to help reduce visible signs of aging, combat congestion, regulate oil production, and brighten the skin — all without drying out the skin. “Niacinamides work with your skin’s natural chemistry to improve overall skin texture by rebuilding a lipid layer, minimizing the appearance of pores, and preventing UV damage and inflammation as an antioxidant,” says Dr. Brandith Irwin, a board-certified dermatologist.

2. Retinol
Retinol is a type of retinoid, which is a derivative of vitamin A. A powerful, well-known ingredient, it is one of the most widely used anti-aging skincare ingredients on the market because it works. It helps reduce fine lines and wrinkles by encouraging collagen production. However, just like niacinamide, retinol is an accomplished multitasker: It can help with everything from clearing acne to smoothing texture to eliminating dullness to minimizing pores.

3. Hyaluronic Acid
Classic ingredients, such as hyaluronic acid, are always in fashion. If you’re well-versed in the beauty space, you’ve probably heard that this skincare ingredient can hold 1,000 times its own weight in water. So don’t be fooled by the inclusion of “acid” in the name. This skincare ingredient is super gentle and can help you achieve intense hydration levels. It’s perfect for those who want to combat dull and dehydrated skin.

4. Vitamin C
Much like hyaluronic acid, vitamin C is a longtime favorite — and for good reason. This powerhouse antioxidant helps skin fight the damaging effects of pollution and stress while also neutralizing free radical damage. Free radicals are molecules that lead to skin damage such as the sun, smoke, and other toxins. Specifically, this skincare ingredient helps brighten skin, boost collagen, fade unwanted pigmentation, and smooth out fine lines. No wonder vitamin C serum sales grew 37% in June 2020.

5. Astaxanthin
Think vitamin C is a powerful antioxidant? Read on about astaxanthin (pronounced “as-tax-an-thin”). Astaxanthin helps prevent oxidative stress and fight issues such as discoloration, dullness, fine lines, etc. And while it may not be as well-known as vitamin C, it’s thought to be even more effective at neutralizing skin-damaging free radicals.

6. Glycolic Acid
Glycolic acid is an alpha hydroxy acid (AHA) that’s used in skincare and cosmetics. AHA is a water-soluble family of skincare ingredients that help exfoliate and resurface your skin. Other forms of AHAs include lactic acid and azelaic acid, but glycolic acid is arguably the most famous AHA because it is the smallest of them all. Therefore, it can deeply penetrate the skin to promote better brightening and exfoliating. That said, glycolic acid is a potent skincare ingredient, meaning it can cause sensitivity. It’s always a good idea to patch-test glycolic acid before incorporating it into your routine.

7. Polyhydroxy Acids
When it comes to chemical exfoliants, you’re not limited to AHAs. There are beta hydroxy acids (BHAs) and polyhydroxy acids (PHAs), too. Of the three, PHAs are the gentlest by far. Unlike BHAs, they won’t dry out skin, and they’re typically well-tolerated by those who find AHAs and BHAs too irritating. PHAs help shed dead skin cells, reduce hyperpigmentation, and reverse sun damage to promote a radiant complexion. Some of the most popular PHAs are gluconolactone acid, galactose acid and lactobionic acid. Experts recommend using PHAs with moisture-locking skincare ingredients like hyaluronic acid and glycerin.

8. Centella Asiatica
Centella asiatica — also known as Gotu kola, tiger grass, or cica — is having a moment thanks to the rise of K-beauty. Yet, it has been used for nearly 3,000 years in traditional Chinese, Indonesian and Ayurvedic medicine. Cica extracts help control collagen synthesis, stop oxidative damage from environmental stressors, and amplify skin’s moisture barrier. Cica serums or creams to relieve acne, scarring, dehydration, inflammation and signs of aging.

9. Prebiotics and Probiotics
When you think about prebiotics and probiotics, gut health probably comes to mind, but a growing body of research shows that treating skin with topical prebiotics and probiotics will help balance the skin’s microbiome and keep inflammation at bay. Prebiotics nourish the good bacteria living on your skin and discourage the overgrowth of harmful bacteria, while probiotics stimulate the skin’s immunity and guard it against irritation and stress. Don’t sleep on this emerging skincare ingredient.

The 2020s have been a lot of things, but boring is not one of them. As we venture further into this new decade, we’ll continue to see the long-term impacts of this global health crisis on the beauty industry — and learn more about the skincare ingredients health-conscious consumers gravitate toward.


About the Author
Courtney Regan is the director of global marketing and brand development at Cosmetic Solutions Innovation Labs, a globally recognized contract manufacturer and innovation partner that offers the operational excellence of large-scale contract manufacturers with the proactive leadership and flexibility to help brands grow on their terms.